My answer is :
Sales (Sheets) |
Probability |
Weighted Sales |
Price |
Probability |
Weighted Price |
|
1,235,305 |
50% |
617,652.50 |
$15.00 |
80% |
$12.00 |
|
1,054,255 |
50% |
527,127.50 |
$15.00 |
20% |
$2.70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expected Value |
100% |
1,144,780.00 |
|
100% |
$14.70 |
$16,828,266.00 |
Please let me know what I am missing?
Question:
Wall, Corp. (Wall) is the leading manufacturer of drywall in the United States. Wall is trying to predict total sales revenue for next year. A new competitor has announced plans to begin selling a new and improved type of drywall starting next year. Wall believes the new product has a 50% chance of lowering sales of 8' by 4' sheets of drywall, their only product, from 1,235,305 sheets to 1,054,255 sheets. If turns out that the new product does reduce Wall's sales volume, there is a 20% chance that Wall will also be forced to reduce its price of $15.00 per sheet to $13.50 per sheet in order to stay competitive at the new sales volume of 1,054,255 sheets.
Based on these estimates, what is the expected sales revenue for next year?
|
$17,171,700.00
|
|
$18,529,575.00
|
|
$17,013,561.75
|
|
$17,603,096.25
|
Solution:
The weighted value is calculated as follows:
Sales (Sheets) |
Probability |
Weighted Sales |
Price |
Probability |
Weighted Price |
Weighted Value |
1,235,305 |
50% |
617,652.50 |
$15.00 |
100% |
$15.00 |
$9,264,787.50 |
1,054,255 |
50% |
527,127.50 |
$15.00 |
80% |
$12.00 |
$6,325,530.00 |
|
|
527,127.50 |
$13.50 |
20% |
$2.70 |
$1,423,244.25 |
Expected Value |
100% |
|
|
|
|
$17,013,561.75 |
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Weighted value=Weighted sales×Weighted price</wileyml:displayeditem>
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Tejas Doke
Accountant
Dombivli MH
India
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